Tower of the Hand

While it is true HBO won't decide on the show's fate for several months and many things can go wrong between now and then, four significant factors give me reason to believe Game of Thrones will be gracing our TV screens soon.

A Built-In Fan Base

Film projects usually attract early interest because of the A-listers attached: the high-profile producers, directors, and actors. Filling those roles for Game of Thrones are David Benioff, D.B. Weiss, Tom McCarthy, and Sean Bean. All terrific talents, to be sure, but not exactly household names. Yet Game of Thrones has somehow generated a buzz that defies what should be low expectations.

Much of that stems from the popularity and critical acclaim of the source material. George R. R. Martin has written four books so far in the series, the most recent of which topped the New York Times bestseller list. Fans praise the books for breathing new life into what had become a stale and tired genre. Lev Grossman of TIME Magazine went so far as to call Martin "the American Tolkien."

So when news of a television adaptation surfaced, most fans were delighted. Websites and forums had already spent years dreaming up the perfect cast, from lead characters to one-line wonders. Reality precluded the likes of Brad Pitt and Nicole Kidman headlining an all-star cast, but many of the fans' suggestions were heard and some were adopted. Martin further involved his fans by teasing casting decisions with obscure hints; ultimately the clues proved to be no match for his most dedicated followers.

Maureen Ryan, television critic for the Chicago Tribune, explained, "Martin's book series tends to inspire a certain kind of deep and abiding loyalty, if not obsession." Fittingly, Ryan has been relentless in her coverage of the show's development. One columnist joked that Ryan "breaks news on the subject as though she's covering Watergate."

Many television critics are similarly anticipating Game of Thrones. James Poniewozik of TIME wrote, "This saga would not only make a great fantasy series, but is a perfect fit for HBO." Matt Roush of TV Guide Magazine brings us full circle, "This could be the TV equivalent to Lord of the Rings many of us have awaited."

When fans AND critics are so positively vocal about a show, months before a single scene is shot, imagine their enthusiasm when they finally get to see it on TV.

The Bran II Rule

An established fan base is a terrific starting point, but it's just that-- a starting point. To succeed in television, a show must attract millions of viewers, most of them unfamiliar with the book, and then keep them, week after week. Game of Thrones can manage that by staying true to what makes the book so popular.

A Game of Thrones features dynamic characters who instantly evoke reactions, love 'em or hate 'em. There's plenty of action alongside quiet moments of moral dilemmas. It takes place in a lavish setting. Appropriately, those traits similarly elevated The Sopranos, Deadwood, Rome-- the best of HBO's previous offerings.

Then there's the book's compelling plot. I've successfully recommended A Game of Thrones to many people over the years. It's not always easy, especially to readers who are wary of heavy serials or fantasy novels, but I usually convince them with a simple promise: if they make it past Bran's second chapter, some 70 pages in, they will finish all 700 pages of the book. I call this the "Bran II Rule."

Not coincidentally, the pilot episode of Game of Thrones, as written by Benioff and Weiss, concludes with the same dramatic point that marks the end of Bran's second chapter, and the "Bran II Rule" applies to viewers just as easily as it does to readers. After watching the first hour, viewers will want to know what happens next. Everyone-- including HBO executives-- will demand a second episode and more.

Timing Couldn't Be Better

With Battlestar Galactica over and Lost nearing its end, Nicole LaPorte of the Daily Beast rightly argued that Game of Thrones is poised to become sci-fi/fantasy nerds' next obsession. But HBO struck gold with the timing of this adaptation for one other significant reason: Martin's next book, A Dance with Dragons, will likely be released in the next year or so.

More than four years have passed since Martin's last book, A Feast for Crows, was published. Despite some frustration that Martin is taking too long to deliver ADWD, I suspect the series is winning far more new fans in the interim than it is losing old ones. Serials, in fact, have a tendency to grow more popular as time goes by, and Martin's books have been no exception. The first three books in the series sold well, but A Feast for Crows was the first in the series to debut atop the New York Times bestseller charts.

I predict the eagerly-anticipated A Dance with Dragons will surpass A Feast for Crows's time atop the charts. And while HBO may not particularly care about that statistic alone, they must be pleased that every book review, magazine article, and blog post that calls A Dance with Dragons the "#1 Bestselling Book" will almost certainly add, "Soon to be an HBO television series." How's that for free advertising?

Made It This Far

It's been thirty-three months since Martin first announced his books were optioned by HBO for a potential television series. Martin, having spent enough years as Hollywood writer to understand the business, warned fans that it would be a long process and there was no guarantee a show would ever be made.

Consider all the challenges a series like Game of Thrones faces. It's a fantasy, which rarely succeeds on television. The story probably demands an expensive production and a sprawling cast. The books are so enormous that condensing them might alienate the author and the fans, or confuse new viewers. And the author has barely completed half of the source material.

Despite all that, two producers agreed to undertake the task with the explicit consent of the author. The writers completed a draft of the pilot script. Locations were scouted, spanning multiple continents. Actors were cast, including some major talent and fan favorites. HBO has had many opportunities to shut this project down and at a time when its investment was fairly minimal. Yet development of the pilot progresses to this day.

James Poniewozik noted, "Considering HBO's history, I would guess that the pilot would have to pretty badly screw the direwolf, as it were, not to get a shot at the air." Obviously, a lot of practical decisions or unpredictable events might upend Game of Thrones, but the mere fact that it's made it this far encourages me. Direwolves are tough to stop and I fully expect to watch them over a course of a whole season.

When HBO's hit show, True Blood, returns next summer, don't be surprised to see the first Game of Thrones promos to premiere with it: "Winter Is Coming to HBO, Winter 2011."